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Posts Tagged 'First and Second Strike'

FX trading week 40 evaluation

9th October 2010 No Comments

From 12 completed trades this week, it managed only 4 in the win. These were unfortunately not large enough to offset the losses. After I on Friday night, the only loss be stopped not have manually closed position, no position will remain open over the weekend and I `s earnings accounted for one weeks of -85 pips or -1.45%.

As in the previous week, I also undermined this week, a calculation error. Except that this time he not read off values ​​was wrong, but by a formula error in my Excel spreadsheet that I modified a bit on Sunday night. Things can happen. Annoying is that I calculated in my performance killer No. 1 - the GBPUSD at a higher risk than intended have been received. And how could it be otherwise, there was also this week, the worst-case scenario, and both long and the short-order, and both were gefillt trades completed at the respective initial stop.

Now I think about it seriously, to select at least one more stop in this pair, or the trigger instead of the previous weeks range, on-chart and align market-relevant points ...

GBPUSD 08.10.10 - H3

Closed Trades
EURGBP @ .8562 long / close @ .8705 / +143 pips
USDCHF short @ .9780 / 0.9780 @ SL / 0 pips
Short USDJPY @ 83.93 / 83.25 @ SL / +68 pips
Short GBPUSD 1.5759 @ / @ SL 1.5861 / -102 pips
Short EURUSD 1.3679 @ / @ SL 1.3844 / -165 pips
Long GBPUSD 1.5861 @ / @ SL 1.5759 / -102 pips
Short USDJPY @ 83.34 / 83.83 @ SL / -50 pips
Long USDJPY @ 83.83 / 83.34 @ SL / -50 pips
Short EURGBP @ .8654 / 0.8756 @ SL / -102 pips
USDCHF short @ .9744 / 0.9608 @ SL / +136 pips
EURGBP @ .8755 long / close @ .8728 / -27 pips
Long EURUSD 1.3843 @ / @ 1.4008 SL / +164 pips

Disclaimer : The published analysis, market commentary, trading signals and transactions have no advice for the purposes of the Securities Exchange Act and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities, or derivatives thereof

FX trading week 39 evaluation

Second October 2010 No Comments

After 7 completed trades with 4 winners, this week the bottom line remains a profit of +251 pips (+0.35%). Thanks to this, however, only the trades from the previous week, I was able to close on Monday all the profits. The new trades were rather bad than good. Above all, once again GBPUSD. The volatility in this pair is still very high, so that neither the long nor the short trade succeeded in winning enough to pull a stop to. Both trades completed at the respective initial stop. Before trading in the GBPUSD but very intermittent, I was thinking, here, first to reduce the risk (Size).

And so I will proceed in the future and with the other currency pairs: Does it run in a pair is not, for this pair is the risk reduced. Here again I use the GD 50, which is however not as far down on the equity curve of the account, but on the equity of each currency pair. If the equity in the 50 GD, the risk is removed. Thus, it should now only the cause of a bad performance hit, while all others continue with "full power".

EURUSD is contrary to my expectations, also on Friday continued to grow, so I with the premature end of my long trades (which it was incorrectly calculated due trigger), I did not drive as suspected more. The red lines in the following screen shows how the orders were supposed to be set. Accordingly, I would be the wrong trade on the short side and I had missed my stop lying now at TP 1. The result of the close on Monday, would be retired with at least +186 pips clearly better.

EURUSD 02.10.10 - H1

Closed Trades
@ 1.3163 EURUSD long / close @ 1.3460 / +297 pips
Long GBPUSD @ 1.5747 / 1.5809 close @ / +62 pips
Short USDJPY @ 85.07 / 84.26 @ close / +81 pips
Short EURUSD 1.3429 @ / @ 1.3512 SL / -84 pips
Long GBPUSD 1.5892 @ / @ SL 1.5756 / -136 pips
Short GBPUSD 1.5756 @ / @ SL 1.5892 / -136 pips
Long EURUSD @ 1.3512 / 1.3679 @ TP / +167 pips

Open positions
Long EURGBP @ 0.85615 / 0.86598 SL / +154 pips
USDCHF short @ 0.97802 / 0.97800 SL / +40 pips
Short USDJPY @ 83.932 / 83.671 SL / +69 pips

Disclaimer : The published analysis, market commentary, trading signals and transactions have no advice for the purposes of the Securities Exchange Act and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities, or derivatives thereof

FX Trading Update 09/30/2010

30th September 2010 No Comments

After the failure in the EURUSD trade on the short side, the long trade today reached the TP 2 and was closed shortly after the trailing stop. All this was only possible because I have calculated the wrong trigger. Thanks again for the information Andreas.

I probably mistyped me or read the values ​​of the previous weeks range in the wrong line on the chart. With the actual values, it would have been no false trade (which would have been missed by 3 pips) and the Long Trade had not yet reached the TP 1.

When I look at the current chart image look like me but had nothing better can happen. With a "near-test" of the April high of $ 1.3692 and a reversal bar in the H4 chart, chances for an overdue correction is not bad. As the week is almost gone, would not have much time for a better result.

EURUSD 30.09.10 - H1

Open positions
Long EURGBP @ 0.85615 / 0.85615 SL / +117 pips
USDCHF short @ 0.97802 / 0.99158 SL / -50 pips
Short USDJPY @ 83.932 / 83.932 SL / +48 pips

Disclaimer : The published analysis, market commentary, trading signals and transactions have no advice for the purposes of the Securities Exchange Act and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities, or derivatives thereof

FX Trading Update 09/28/2010

28th September 2010 No Comments

EURUSD: The euro started the new trading week with a correction and thus not in favor of my long position from the previous week. But I was able to close the trade on Monday after all, even with +297 pips for the current week and provide a small cushion. I'll probably also need, as it has already given a false trade. The correction, expired today, after the short trigger at $ 1.3429 hit and marked the day's low was at $ 1.3381. Meanwhile, the share price to new highs on the road and my short position has been stopped and the gefillt Long-order at $ 1.35124. The increase was initially very dynamic and ended just below my first profit target.

EURUSD 28.09.10 - H1

Open positions
Long EURGBP @ 0.85615 / 0.84631 SL / +27 pips
Long EURUSD @ 1.35124 / 1.34290 SL / +47 pips
Short GBPUSD @ 1.57561 / 1.58919 SL / -34 pips
USDCHF short @ 0.97802 / 0.99158 SL / +10 pips
Short USDJPY @ 83.932 / 84.608 SL / +3 pips

Disclaimer : The published analysis, market commentary, trading signals and transactions have no advice for the purposes of the Securities Exchange Act and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities, or derivatives thereof

FX Trading Update 22/09/2010

22nd September 2010 No Comments

The uptrend in the EUR / USD today marked a new high at $ 1.3440 and passed on the way to my first profit target. The Long-order gefillt yesterday in late trading as the market came in the wake of the Fed's interest rate decision in motion. A first portion of income so I have already implemented and tightened the stop to the entry.

The trading range for the previous week in the EUR / USD is down 456 pips relatively high. Because the trigger for the current week based on this range, these are now very far apart. Given the already very advanced upward movement, I have my doubts, whether another TP is reached later this week.

EURUSD 22.09.10 - H3

It is somewhat different in the EUR / GBP. The trading range for the previous week was significantly lower at 133 pips, so that the triggers are closer together here. In this currency pair has already reached my long trade at midday today the final TP 3, which finally ended with the trade +159 pips.

EURGBP 22.09.10 - H3

Open positions
Long EURUSD @ 1.31627 / 1.31627 SL / +216 pips
Short GBPUSD @ 1.55948 / 1.57472 SL / -69 pips
USDCHF short @ 1.00631 / 0.99534 SL / +190 pips
Short USDJPY @ 85.072 / 86.296 SL / +54 pips

Disclaimer : The published analysis, market commentary, trading signals and transactions have no advice for the purposes of the Securities Exchange Act and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities, or derivatives thereof

FX trading week 37 evaluation

19th September 2010 No Comments

As I tightened the stops on Friday of the outstanding positions in the EURUSD and EURGBP very closely, they were also stopped out soon. The outstanding orders I have already canceled on Friday morning, so I have taken no trade with the weekend. Much better results could have the week did not, as most of "my" currency pairs for trading were in corrections.

After 11 trades with 8 winners, a weekly gain of 1.86% and will remain an equity curve that has long been noted once again on their 50's GD. Next week, the risk per trade will be increased again to 0.5%. Should I even have great faith in a trend, and 1% in trend direction are possible.

The Week at a Glance
Short EURGBP @ .8297 / close @ .8222 / +75 pips (+1.00 R)
EURUSD short @ 1.2840 / 1.2731 close @ / +109 pips (+1.00 R)
Long USDCHF 1.0191 @ / @ 1.0109 SL / -82 pips (-0.84 R)
Long GBPUSD @ 1.5463 / 1.5369 @ SL / -94 pips (-1.00 R)
Short GBPUSD 1.5369 @ / @ 1.5463 SL / -94 pips (-1.00 R)
Short USDJPY @ 83.90 / 83.16 @ close / +74 pips (+0.82 R)
@ 1.0109 USDCHF short / close @ .9935 / +174 pips (+2.02 R)
Short USDJPY @ 83.91 / 82.98 @ close / +92 pips (+2.01 R)
Long USDJPY @ 84.37 / 85.75 close @ / +138 pips (+2.94 R)
Long EURGBP 0.8337 @ / @ SL 0.8337 / 0 pips
@ 1.2849 EURUSD long / close @ 1.3069 / +220 pips (+2.00 R)

FX trading week 36 evaluation

12th September 2010 No Comments

A definitive conclusion can unfortunately not make since for the open positions already part of capital gains were realized, but this can only be considered if the trades are closed on Monday.

At best it is currently running with the EURUSD. Here I could see the long trade from the previous week, on Monday close to +1.59 R and had this week with the trade in the opposite direction can already achieve partial profits. The remaining part of the item can no longer run in the loss, because the stop has already tightened the entry price. As it stands now, the start of trading on the TP 2 could even be achieved.

EURUSD KW 36

Less effective when it ran into this week with USDCHF. I was overweight, the risk in short-direction, as I assumed in this currency pair, a downward trend. The corresponding trigger was also taken before the course but then veered up and me with an R (-0.5%) ausstoppte. When I look at the current constellation, so I see a double-bottom and will in the coming week, the risk probably in Long-direction overweight.

USDCHF KW 36

Closed Trades
@ 1.2774 EURUSD long / close @ 1.2895 / +122 pips (+1.59 R)
@ 1.5422 GBPUSD short / close @ 1.5323 / +99 pips (+1.00 R)
Long EURGBP 0.8372 @ / @ 0.8297 SL / -75 pips (-1.00 R)
USDCHF short @ 1.0093 / 1.0191 @ SL / -98 pips (-1.00 R)
Long GBPUSD 1.5522 @ / @ SL 1.5422 / -100 pips (-1.00 R)

Open Trades
EURGBP short @ 0.82968 / 0.82968 SL / +38 pips
EURUSD short @ 1.28401 / 1.28401 SL / +157 pips
USDCHF long @ 1.01910 / 1.00930 SL / +3 pips
Short USDJPY @ 83.898 / 84.794 SL / -28 pips

FX orders for the trading week 34

23rd August 2010 No Comments

The equity curve goes well to start the new week's trading below its 50 DGs, so I think the risk remains relatively small and for each currency pair max. Risking 0.75% (long + short). The potential risk to the overall 5-traded currency pairs, it is at 3.75% (worst case). According to the rules of the First and Second Strike system , I have determined the trends and triggers, and placed the following orders:

EURGBP is in decline, risk weights on short
Long @ .81908 / .81470 SL
Short @ 0.81470 / 0.81908 SL
EURUSD with no clear trend, reduced risk and no weighting
Long @ 1.27698 / 1.26666 SL
Short @ 1.26666 / 1.27698 SL
GBPUSD without a clear trend of reduced risk and no weighting
Long @ 1.56169 / 1.55211 SL
Short @ 1.55211 / 1.56169 SL
USDCHF is in the downtrend, short overweight risk
Long @ 1.03912 / 1.02808 SL
Short @ 1.02808 / 1.03912 SL
USDJPY is in downtrend, short overweight risk
Long @ 85.641 / 85.109 SL
Short @ 85.109 / 85.641 SL

Disclaimer : The published analysis, market commentary, trading signals and transactions have no advice for the purposes of the Securities Exchange Act and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities, or derivatives thereof

FX Trading Update 08/20/2010

21st August 2010 No Comments

Sustainable trend movements were again this week, "scarce," says that my system worked only at the level of the loss limitation. With a hit rate of only 25% were missing the wheel while in the majority but the weekly income was 0.6% more bearable. However, I again have to find times that my stop strategy is very inflexible and requires optimization. This should then be implemented from next week by the trailing stop will not follow in a proportional spacing, but is designed to chart course-relevant areas.

Four open positions I take with me into the weekend, which represent their current stops, an overall risk of 1%. Even though three of them are currently in the loss, but they have made a small book profit.

Closed Trades
@ 1.5911 GBPUSD short / close @ 1.5586 / +325 pips / (+2.66 R)
Long GBPUSD 1.5676 @ / @ SL 1.5504 / -172 pips / (-1.00 R)
Short GBPUSD 1.5504 @ / @ SL 1.5676 / -172 pips / (-1.00 R)
Long EURUSD 1.2903 @ / @ SL 1.2680 / -223 pips / (-1.00 R)

Open Trades
Long EURGBP @ 0.82424 / 0.81674 SL / -63 pips
EURUSD short @ 1.26799 / 1.29029 SL / -32 pips
USDCHF short @ 1.04418 / 1.04418 SL / +99 pips
Short USDJPY @ 85.497 / 86.155 SL / -15 pips

FX orders for the trading week 33

16th August 2010 No Comments

The equity curve is still running below its 50 DGs, the risk so I also think this week is relatively small, and for each currency pair max. Risking 0.75% (long + short). The potential risk to the overall 5-traded currency pairs, is at 3.75% (worst case). According to the First and Second Strike system , I placed the following orders:

EURGBP is in decline, risk weights on short
Long @ .82424 / .81674 SL
Short @ 0.81674 / 0.82424 SL
EURUSD is moving ahead, risk overweight long
Long @ 1.29029 / 1.26799 SL
Short @ 1.26799 / 1.29029 SL
GBPUSD is moving ahead, risk overweight long
Long @ 1.56765 / 1.55035 SL
Short @ 1.55035 / 1.56765 SL
USDCHF is in the downtrend, short overweight risk
Long @ 1.05422 / 1.04418 SL
Short @ 1.04418 / 1.05422 SL
USDJPY is in downtrend, short overweight risk
Long @ 86.155 / 85.497 SL
Short @ 85.497 / 86.155 SL

Disclaimer : The published analysis, market commentary, trading signals and transactions have no advice for the purposes of the Securities Exchange Act and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities, or derivatives thereof